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Summary

Projections produced by both local and universal models indicate that predicted global solar radiation at the surface decreases slightly under the RCP8.5 scenario in comparison to the RCP4.5 scenario. The differences between means of predicted values are smaller in the universal model than in the local model, and this is also visible in the plots for the 12 month moving average between 2020 and 2100. However, both models indicate larger positive differences mid-century between the two profiles where RCP8.5 produces lower predicted radiation. This is less pronounced and more variable in the projections produced via the universal downscaling task as opposed to the local downscaling task. Both downscaling projections indicate that predictions become closer to or exceed those for RCP4.5 near the end of the century.

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Downscaling Global Climate Models with Convolutional and Long-Short-Term Memory Networks for Solar Energy Applications by C.P. Davey is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.